Bullish Maze

China, Russia, and North Korea: A New Axis of Power in the Indo-Pacific?

The Indo-Pacific region, which spans from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean, is home to some of the world’s most dynamic and diverse countries, as well as some of the most pressing security challenges. Among them are the nuclear ambitions of North Korea, the territorial disputes of China, and the geopolitical ambitions of Russia. These three countries have recently shown signs of increasing their military cooperation, raising the alarm of the United States and its allies, who see them as potential adversaries.

According to some reports, Russia has proposed conducting three-way naval exercises with North Korea and China in the Indo-Pacific, potentially forming a counter-alliance against the U.S. and its allies. China has not commented on the proposal, and North Korea has not accepted it yet, but both countries have close ties with Russia, especially since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The U.S. and its allies have expressed concern over the growing military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, which they say violates U.N. sanctions on North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.

Some experts say that the proposed naval exercise is a diplomatic signaling of a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, rather than a preparation for war. They argue that China, Russia, and North Korea have different interests and agendas, and that their cooperation is limited by mutual distrust and divergent priorities. For instance, China is wary of North Korea’s nuclear provocations, which could destabilize the region and invite U.S. intervention. Russia is also reluctant to antagonize the U.S. too much, as it seeks to maintain a dialogue on strategic issues such as arms control and cyber security. North Korea, meanwhile, is keen to preserve its autonomy and sovereignty, and may not be willing to follow the lead of either China or Russia.

Others warn that the proposed naval exercise could increase the risk of miscalculation and escalation in the region. They point out that the Indo-Pacific is already a complex and contested area, where multiple actors have overlapping and conflicting claims and interests. For example, China claims most of the South China Sea, where it has built artificial islands and military facilities, despite the objections of neighboring countries and international law. The U.S. and its allies conduct freedom of navigation operations and joint exercises to challenge China’s assertiveness and uphold the rules-based order. North Korea regularly tests its ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, defying the international community and threatening its neighbors. Russia, meanwhile, seeks to expand its influence and presence in the region, by providing arms and support to its allies, such as Syria and Iran, and by conducting its own military drills and patrols.

The addition of a new axis of power in the Indo-Pacific could complicate the already tense and fragile situation, and create new sources of friction and confrontation. For example, the naval exercise could involve the use of advanced weapons and technologies, such as submarines, stealth fighters, and hypersonic missiles, that could pose a challenge to the U.S. and its allies’ military superiority and deterrence. The naval exercise could also send a message of defiance and solidarity to the U.S. and its allies, and signal their intention to resist any pressure or interference in their affairs. The naval exercise could also trigger a response from other regional players, such as Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia, who may feel threatened or excluded by the emerging alliance.

The U.S. and its allies have called for dialogue and diplomacy to address the security challenges in the Indo-Pacific, and to prevent any escalation or conflict. They have also reaffirmed their commitment to uphold the international order and the rule of law, and to support the peaceful resolution of disputes. However, they have also made clear that they will not tolerate any aggression or coercion from any party, and that they will defend their interests and values, as well as those of their partners and allies. The U.S. and its allies have also sought to strengthen their own cooperation and coordination, through mechanisms such as the Quad, a strategic dialogue among the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, and the AUKUS, a new security pact among the U.S., the U.K., and Australia.

The Indo-Pacific region is at a crossroads, where the actions and decisions of the major powers will shape its future. The proposed naval exercise between China, Russia, and North Korea is a manifestation of the changing dynamics and uncertainties in the region, and a test of the U.S. and its allies’ resolve and capabilities. The outcome of this test will have significant implications for the stability and prosperity of the region, and for the global order.